For the Media

Although the media continue to play up the horse-race aspect of the presidential campaign, it is important to note that we have a long way to go. Another way to think about it is that an important national election is much like an NBA game – not much happens until the fourth quarter. And in that fourth quarter a minute can seem like a lifetime. Timeouts are called, points are scored in bunches, players turn the ball over, and the crowd gets whipped up in a frenzy.

In other words, for all of the noise generated by the party conventions and the subsequent (requisite?) media panting, we still have two months, three presidential debates, and one vice presidential debate ahead of us.

Now I know my social science colleagues believe they can accurately predict the outcome of elections using a few key variables. For example, some argue that the incumbent party almost always loses if they have been in power for two terms. Others contend that presidential elections turn on things like which candidate is ahead in the polls right after Labor Day or which candidate is taller.

Perhaps the most elegant of the predictive models is the one used by Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. Abramowitz’s model is pretty straightforward: “the president’s net approval rating (NAR - approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president’s party has held the White House for two terms or longer.” Abramowitz calls this formula the Electoral Barometer (EB). It ranges from 100 to -100. A positive EB usually means the president’s party wins and a negative EB usually means the president’s party loses. The EB, according to Abramowitz, has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 of the presidential elections since WW II.

For the 2008 presidential election this formula predicts the following:

EB = 28-69 (NAR) + (5*3.0 GDP) – 25 = -51.

By this account, Obama should win the election handily. For instance, the EB in 1980 was -66 and Reagan won by 9.7% of the popular vote. Likewise, the EB in 1952 was -49.5 and Eisenhower won by 10.9%.

So why are the opinion polls so close and David Axelrod is biting his fingernails? It’s because these models don’t adequately account for the “fourth quarter” effect. You see, people aren’t sure if Obama can really handle the job of head coach. They aren’t sure if the plays that worked in the first half are solid down the stretch, that he can call timeout at the appropriate time, or devise a clever play to get the last shot. They aren’t convinced his team can cool off the hot shooting guard (Sarah Palin) from the other team. In short, they are not convinced he can deliver the goods in “crunch time” (Plot line sound familiar? See, “Glory Road”!).

And folks, in crunch time minutes unfold in dog years. Don’t put your money down on the table just yet.

Permalink

On-topic comments that add to the discussion are welcome. Please respect each other and the forum by using your real name and a civil tone. Spam and comments judged by UCLA to be libelous, offensive or abusive may be deleted without notice

Comments

Forex Trading System says:

The comment spam here is intense

dwikimedia says:

http://dwikimedia.blogspot.com/2010/01/astagacom-lifestyle-on-net.html

jemiro says:

nice topic :) really great <a href="http://ejournal.gunadarma.ac.id">post</a>

Dwikis says:

Nice Article Sir. http://dwikipedia.blog.friendster.com/astagacom-lifestyle-on-the-net/

John says:

Not sure what Obama meant when he talked about new jobs in the renewable energy sector. Is this for real now or just words...? http://www.sunforcesolarchargingkit.com/

LisaXL says:

Run to <a href="http://www.4writers.net">freelance writers </a> when you would like to some more information just about this post.

ElisabettaZa says:

Thanks a lot for the <a href="http://www.primewritings.com">custom essay co uk</a> corresponding with this good topic. That is very good to come along the <a href="http://www.primewritings.com/costs.php">costs</a>!

Dwiki says:

I like Obama. Nice posting and good article Sir. http://dwikisetiyawan.wordpress.com http://dwikisetiyawan.wordpress.com/2009/12/25/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita/ http://dwikisetiyawan.wordpress.com/2009/12/31/spirit-kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita/

Albu says:

It is always great to share the innovative ideas with others on our demand.That is the main way for the people to know about the good types of techniques to equip it. It will really gives the crucial moments for others to know about it. It is a great passion for the people to select the great categories of the stories on the requirements of using it. I've been trading Forex for the past 2 years now and I have made a very healthy living using this <a href="http://www.forexfee.com/free-automated-trading-software">Free Automated Trading Software</a>

Forex Pip says:

Obama will be tested during his presidency and is currently being tested. The statistics proved that Obama won by a land slide. Author of <a href="http://forexrobottraders.com/forex-trading-robots/the-different-types-of-auto-forex-robots/">Forex Auto Robots</a>

Forex Pip says:

Obama will be tested during his presidency and is currently being tested. The statistics proved that Obama won by a land slide. Author of <a href="">Forex Auto Robots</a>

Rolex Datejust watch for sale says:

Gerry says:

Great topic, nice artickle and informative. I get much knowledge after reading your post. Thanks for share. http://kaos.web44.net/astaga-com-lifestyle-on-the-net http://kaos.web44.net/halaman-pertama-google-10-besar-google-astaga-com-lifestyle-on-the-net http://kaos.net16.net http://kaos-you.blogspot.com http://desainkaos.net16.net http://halamanpertamagoogle-10besargoogle.host22.com http://kaos.net16.net

budy says:

thank alot for sharing. this article realy great http://alfanbutway.wordpress.com/2009/11/23/mbah-gendeng-lagi-naik-daun-di-dunia-maya.html http://tour-travel.fortunerentcar.com http://sewamobilsurabaya.com http://iklanbaristanpadaftar.com http://fortunerentcar.com

booking says:

http://poptropicagamess.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita-for.html http://ktsp-rpp-silabus.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita.html http://download-mp3nasyid.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita-from.html http://raudensah.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita.html http://freeringbacktoness.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita-pleural.html http://value-cityfurniture.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita-pilgrim.html http://vitaminshoppes.blogspot.com/2010/01/kerja-keras-adalah-energi-kita-pleural.html

Greg says:

With Obama being in power for nearly a year there is a little more direction and purpose to US domestic and foreign policies. During his presidency he will be tested daily and he knows it, how well he leads and understands how to lead by example is another matter. <a href="http://forexrobottraders.com/category/forex-software-reviews/">best forex software</a>

Tag Heuer watches says:

http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Datejust%20II/ Rolex Datejust II watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Datejust/ Rolex Datejust watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Submariner/ Rolex Submariner watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Yachtmaster/ Yachtmaster watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Day-Date%20II/ Rolex Day-Date II watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Daytona/ Rolex Daytona watch for sale http://www.longineswatches.org/Rolex/Explorer/ Rolex Explorer watch for sale

zadoc says:

And folks, in crunch time minutes unfold in dog years. Don’t put your money down on the table just yet. <a href="http://cash-gifting-cow.blogspot.com/">cash gifting</a> <a href="http://hubpages.com/hub/Forex-Trading-System-Your-Key-to-Affluence">forex trading system</a>

joannarose27 says:

I guess this post is little old...but yes I agree with the stats given here...no doubt that Obama has won this election as he was one of the best candidates...<a href="http://www.acaiberryinformations.com/">acai berry juice</a>

RSS Alerts

Facebook Twitter Youtube

About

Election analysis and personal commentary by UCLA scholars, unfiltered.

News release

Contact UCLA Newsroom

RSS Feed

For the Media

Current Issues

Useful Links

The Obama equation

Comments

Forex Trading System says:

dwikimedia says:

jemiro says:

Dwikis says:

John says:

LisaXL says:

ElisabettaZa says:

Dwiki says:

Albu says:

Forex Pip says:

Forex Pip says:

Rolex Datejust watch for sale says:

Gerry says:

budy says:

booking says:

Greg says:

Tag Heuer watches says:

zadoc says:

joannarose27 says:

Tool Tip

Tool Tip

About

Our Bloggers

Archive