Stomping on a message

In politics, timing may not be everything, but it’s certainly important. Nowhere has that been more evident in this election cycle than in the timing of Vice Presidential candidates. We found out that Barack Obama had picked Joe Biden as his running mate on August 22nd–only three days before the start of the Democratic National Convention. Similarly, John McCain announced his pick of Sarah Palin on August 29th–again, only three days before the planned start of the Republican National Convention.

 

In contrast, other recent VP picks were announced earlier in the campaign cycle, and further from each party’s nominating conventions. In 2004, John Kerry announced John Edwards as his pick on July 6, 20 days before the start of the DNC. In 2000, George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney on July 25 (6 days before the RNC), while Al Gore picked Joe Lieberman on August 7th (7 days before the DNC). Why were the 2008 vice presidents waiting so long offstage?

 

The answer appears to be a calculation on the part of each campaign to avoid having their messages “stepped on”–or, in the case of McCain, a desire to step on the message of the opposing campaign. Stepping on a message occurs when a politician’s desired message or theme is overwhelmed when the news media choose to focus on some other, more interesting story (often provided by the opposing campaign). In some cases, an error or uncoordinated communication by a campaign can result in their “stepping on their own message”, i.e.-sapping news coverage of their desired issue in favor of one that is off-topic or distracting.

 

In 2008, the Obama campaign likely delayed their announcement of Biden as their vice presidential choice because of the overwhelming distraction of the 2008 Summer Olympics. The McCain choice, on the other hand, appears to have been timed precisely to stomp on the coverage that would otherwise have been devoted to covering the reaction to Obama’s speech to the Democratic National Convention, which had occurred the night before the announcement.

 

Did these efforts work? To get a sense of the effectiveness of each party’s efforts, I searched the UCLA Communication Studies Archive’s index of news and public affairs programming for each candidate’s last name (note that this rough search undoubtedly resulted in a number of false positives from other people sharing the candidates’ last names, or from mentions of spouses or relatives). The first chart below looks at the proportion of news and public affairs shows that mentioned each of the candidates, while the second chart simply counts the daily total mentions of that candidate’s name across all such shows.

 

The proportion chart shows that until his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain was being mentioned on fewer total programs than the combination of Obama and Biden. Interestingly, Biden appears to have been capturing media attention even before his official nomination, probably due to (correct) media speculation that he would get the nod. In contrast, Palin received almost no attention prior to her selection, and then helped the Republican ticket almost immediately seize attention away from the Democratic ticket (mostly at the expense of Biden, it appears).

 

Looking at the raw count of candidate mentions (which are likely a better measure of overall attention, but reflects the ebb-and-flow of the news week, including relatively less news on the weekend), one can see a similar, but more nuanced story.

 

After the Olympic closing ceremony on August 24th, coverage of the Democratic ticket exploded, peaking at nearly 4,000 combined Obama/Biden mentions the day before Obama’s acceptance speech. Despite Hurricane Gustav, it is clear that Palin’s pick immediately shifted the media’s emphasis to the Republican side, with 3,000 combined mentions of McCain and Palin on the day of her announcement (more than twice as many as Obama and Biden received the day after Obama’s big speech). Since then, the Republicans have held a consistent edge in daily mentions, even after the end of the national convention. Interestingly, while Palin was the target of many of these mentions, McCain mentions also exploded, keeping pace or exceeding Palin on most subsequent days.

 

Of course, it must be noted that this analysis does not account for whether the mentions of each candidate were positive or negative, nor is it by any means clear that future coverage will reflect these same patterns. It is clear, however, that the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket has resulted in far more media attention being directed toward the Republicans at the expense of Democrats.

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Erin Morino says:

I think Obama picked his candidate carefully looking at the opposite vp candidate to see who would have the more chance to win. Either you pick a woman to face a woman, may the best win, whatever the experience, or the image of an experienced man versus a unexperienced but pretty woman. It was just a question of choice. Erin Morino http://www.baby-travel-system.org/

Steve says:

I don't think that's the last we have seen of Sarah Palin, she is a very determined lady who is out to make a name for herself and I'm sure she will succeed. http://www.propertyaddict.com

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The first chart below looks at the proportion of news and public affairs shows that mentioned each of the candidates. It is evident. http://www.customwritings.com/essays.html http://www.customwritings.com/term-papers.html http://www.customwritings.com/research-papers.html

LAST MINUTE says:

The proportion chart shows that until his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain was being mentioned on fewer total programs than the combination of Obama and Biden. Interestingly, Biden appears to have been capturing media attention even before his official nomination, probably due to (correct) media speculation that he would get the nod. In contrast, http://www.odlotowewakacje.com Palin received http://www.whitehouse.gov almost no attention prior to her selection, and then helped the Republican ticket almost immediately seize attention away from the Democratic ticket (mostly at the expense of Biden, it appears). Looking at the raw count of candidate mentions (which are likely a better measure of overall attention, but reflects the ebb-and-flow of the news week, including relatively less news on the weekend), one can see a similar, but more nuanced story.

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Kenny says:

I love the whole concept!:) Kenny publisher of http://www.healblog.net

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