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Too much is being made in the media these days about the so-called “Bradley effect.” In fact there is so much media coverage of this, I will only summarize that the Bradley effect has to do with hidden racial bias in American elections. What this apoplectic coverage misses, however, is the more central question: how will Americans think about race on November 4? In other words, will the current presidential election transform racial attitudes, hence race relations, in any meaningful way?

Let’s look at a series of interrelated points that allows us to answer the question of whether race matters in a post-Obama world.

One obvious but frequently overlooked fact is that for the first time in history large numbers of white Americans will cast a presidential ballot for a major party candidate of African descent. All cynicism aside, this ain’t small potatoes. For all of the hand-wringing about hidden racism and social desirability effects, it is still the case that millions of whites will vote for a black man. (I know, I know – he is bi-racial BUT to most Americans he is black. Ah, the social construction of race rears its head here.) This does say something significant about social change in the U.S.

The critical rejoinder to this observation, however, is that this particular brand of cross-over voting will result in a false sense of security among many whites who will believe that we have solved the race question. This is likely to be even more salient, according to critics, if Obama wins. The corollary view often expressed by “progressive” African Americans is that the needs of the truly disadvantaged in minority communities will slide further and further down the public agenda. The grist for this mill comes from Obama’s apparent reticence to frequently and openly bring questions of racial and social justice to the forefront.

The other part of this equation, assuming Obama wins, is the notion that minority communities will be lulled into a false sense of security; that is, they will be awash in the positive feelings produced by group pride and symbolic representation. The upshot is that any sense of urgency is dulled, making social justice advocacy more and more difficult. This is a particular concern among some commentators who are suspicious of Obama’s commitment to aggressively pursuing racial equity.

Underlying much of this angst is the concern that the values and world views of middle class blacks and lower class blacks are becoming increasingly different. A Pew survey released earlier this year reported that significant numbers of African Americans believed that there are greater class differences in attitudes and values in their communities now as opposed to ten years ago. In a nationwide Internet survey of almost 700 black likely voters, my colleague Mark Sawyer and I found that only 20 percent of the respondents felt that middle class blacks and lower class blacks shared the same values as they did ten years prior. The point is that it is reasonable to question whether or not an Obama win automatically improves the plight of African Americans, particularly given the growing disparity in well-being between the haves and the have nots.

On the other hand, perhaps Obama does have the capacity to bring Americans together. Not just on race, but on a range of important social and political issues, he has framed his campaign through the lens of three important and widely shared values – shared fate, American ingenuity, and opportunity. Through these values he encourages people to understand the complex problems facing society – including race, and encourages them to see them as fundamentally American problems that affect all of us.

In other words, the perceptual lens he brings is defined by shared values and pushes us to address questions of race in this context. So, it is not that he refuses to talk about race; rather, it is that he has chosen to talk about race in a fundamentally different way than most Americans are used to. It is not the rhetoric of Jesse Jackson and other social justice advocates socialized during the civil rights movement. Obama’s racial discourse is based on a different architecture. This is in line with a recent study we conducted with the D.C.-based think tank The FrameWorks Institute. The study found that the explicit language of race (i.e., language that overtly opens the conversation with a discussion of things like racism and white privilege) impeded productive conversations about race while a more implicit discourse – one that looks at race through broader communal values – had the capacity to lift support for a progressive race policy agenda. In other words, the country may actually make progress on questions of racial equity.

Granted, and as I posted earlier, it ain’t over til’ it’s over. Weird and unexpected things can and do happen to fundamentally alter the course of an election. But the time is drawing nigh. And the clock is ticking loudly. How this plays out will have significant consequences for generations to come.

For those of you interested in this topic and the presidential election in general, please join me and other “Sprint” bloggers at a talk on November 6: “Reflections on the Presidential Election.” It will be held at the UCLA School of Public Affairs Building, Room 2355, from 4-5:30pm.

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